Guest columnist Jason “Jay” Atkins takes a good hard look at the future of Counter-Strike: Source

When I sat down to write this I first had the idea to do a retrospective write up of the year in Source so far, then I thought “well that's all well and good but what does the future hold?” Hopefully during the course of this article I and those who choose to pass comment will shed more light on what is a confusing time in eSports and more importantly grasp where it is going.

There are many factors to take into account when it comes to futurology. Futurology is defined in the dictionary as “the study or forecasting of trends or developments in science, technology, political or social structure, etc”. With this in mind I will attempt to extrapolate the future of Counter-Strike: Source by taking into account rates of growth, new games, technologies and existing tournaments and organisations.

One rule of thumb I have heard since day one is that to look into the future in 'the industry' just look towards Asia. All well and good but we aren't Asia, the culture and socio-political environment surrounding not just gaming, but almost every aspect of life is so different. So I shall not be using that analogy; I feel it's based on a totally different (real time strategy based) model. So what do I actually envisage for the future?

DirecT to the Stars via the Sky

With Season Two of the Championship Gaming Series now in the history books the league seems somewhat more established, I’m seeing fewer and fewer “CGS has killed competitive gaming” comments. Now, you may say, “so what? Most forum posters have a limited understanding of what they are actually involved in”. I would lend credence to that normally, but in the terms of futurology the general atmosphere has to be taken into account. The Web Bot project is a prime example of perhaps (and this is only my interpretation of the noble project) an attempt to develop an understanding of the future via scanning the web for general terms, then making economic and political predictions based on the information that it sees all around on Al Gore's internet. With that in mind the less critical the general atmosphere then the more it bodes well for the CGS.

Season two's budget was from my understanding reduced to ensure that the third season's budget surpasses that of the initial launch. This could mean a combination of the following outcomes;

Season three of the Championship Gaming Series is a key component in the future of Counter-Strike: Source.

• Expansion of the league
• More Advertising
• Higher Salaries
• Higher Prizepots

Much like in the music industry the third instalment is usually viewed as the make or break endeavour for the creator. It would seem that since day one CGS had something that seemingly very few leagues have had, that being an actual plan.

I had enquired about access to the Nielsen Ratings for CGS, but I was informed through a representative that the information is not public, so no fancy graphs plotting the viewership of CGS. However I can provide a quote from the 2007 season “the overall response has been very positive”. I still wouldn't mind seeing the Nielsen/BARB ratings; they would shed a lot of light of the financial viability of CGS. The initial goal of CGS according to the Executive VP of Entertainment, Eric Shanks, was to “capitalize on a huge phenomenon.” whether they have achieved this is dictated by a couple of factors, mainly viewership among the key 18-35 age demographic. After all keeping the likes of Mountain Dew on-board as sponsors is reliant on them having people to advertise their products to. One worthy footnote is that of all the games featured Counter-Strike: Source seems to be the one with the most consistent drop in viewing figures.

There must be some upside for the trinity of Star TV, BSKYB and DirecTV as I just recently read on Digital Spy that signups for the CGS will soon be implemented via skygames.com. This shows that the brand's marketing is starting to become more and more pervasive within the Sky network showing that there is a solid commitment to expansion. The more the brand is exposed to casual gamers the more that prestige will be associated. The launch of Pro-AM division should also help allay fears that CGS is attempting to create a two-tier system. Perhaps one major concern regarding CGS was its lack of support for the existing eSports structure and concepts. Keeping the hardcore element onside is not their major concern but I hardly see them changing to say HALO or something with more console appeal simply for the fact this would lose them more of the credibility they so crave.

The MR15 Confusion

I say the MR15 confusion because the scene outside of CGS is a lot harder to categorise. Casting an eye outside of CGS and things become altogether murkier, with the LAN scene being a collection of regional tournaments and the online scene fraught with questions regarding the liquidity of some of Europe's larger leagues, it is altogether a more volatile mixture with many variables. However this is what has been one of the traditional strengths of eSports, the outlook is not as bleak as it may seem, as one leagues misfortune is another's opportunity.

Take theSGL's recent struggles between losing the core of their Source admin team and the LAN debacle at SummerSLAM (warranted or not it's perceived they played a part in a failed event). Cast your mind back to late 06 to mid 07, theSGL.com was perhaps the most promising of the emerging leagues. Having hosted the Intel C2E Challenge and a £5,000 season of CS:S they seemed to be bringing in the teams that had grown weary of ClanBase and EnemyDown. However with the recent changes in their fortune EnemyDown seems poised to jump right back into position as the dominant competitive UK league with their EuroKreig league. Meanwhile CEVO seems to go from strength to strength assuming the position as dominant online league for North America. So while the picture may sometimes look a little more desolate for the online scene semi-pro teams seem to always find pastures new to ply their trade.

The LAN scene has always had the WCG and ESWC, couple this with EMS, LAN79, iSeries, TEX, Dreamhack and countless fly by night operations. There always seems to be someone with the intention of turning a perceived quick buck doing the 'pro gaming' league business. Even while the sands are constantly shifting beneath the teams left to play MR15 I don't perceive a lack of tournaments any time soon.

Contender(s) to the Crown

Many Source naysayers would have you believe that Call of Duty is poised to replace CS:S as the competitive team based game of choice. Knowing what I know about gaming (I didn't start in CS I would find my way via Medal of Honour, BF42, vCoD and other such titles) I would have to say the chances of this are minimal. With the recent announcements of Call of Duty 5 and the confirmation of the Call of Duty 6 Sci-Fi title it would appear they are following the EA model of over saturation, which while good for the bottom line will probably fracture the community and create the perception that the game is not a viable option for a competitive title. So I don't really perceive any threat in the immediate future and with the long awaited Source engine update CS:S should stay relevant (to advertisers and sponsors) for a few years to come.

In Conclusion

I would have to say that as long as there is no major economic collapse (if there was you would have to imagine that with eSports being a luxury not a necessity it would be the first to suffer) then I can't see a reason, at least in the medium term, that Counter-Strike: Source will still be in a position at the top with a fairly fractured amateur circuit and most definitely still a CGS franchise game.

Many look towards the almost mythical, fabled CS 2 as the next big thing, but for the time being Source is the best combination of marketability, playability and professionalism to base team based FPS around. Who knows, maybe something special will arise out of one of the many new engines in production (iD's tech5 springs to mind) but as far as I can see the future is still Source.